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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications
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Volume 45 | Copyright
Adv. Geosci., 45, 193-199, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-193-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  22 Aug 2018

22 Aug 2018

A preliminary stochastic analysis of the uncertainty of natural processes related to renewable energy resources

Elli Klousakou, Maria Chalakatevaki, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Theano Iliopoulou, Romanos Ioannidis, Georgios Karakatsanis, Andreas Efstratiadis, Nikos Mamasis, Romina Tomani, Efthimis Chardavellas, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis Elli Klousakou et al.
  • Department of Water Resources, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Zografou, Greece

Abstract. The ever-increasing energy demand has led to overexploitation of fossil fuels deposits, while renewables offer a viable alternative. Since renewable energy resources derive from phenomena related to either atmospheric or geophysical processes, unpredictability is inherent to renewable energy systems. An innovative and simple stochastic tool, the climacogram, was chosen to explore the degree of unpredictability. By applying the climacogram across the related timeseries and spatial-series it was feasible to identify the degree of unpredictability in each process through the Hurst parameter, an index that quantifies the level of uncertainty. All examined processes display a Hurst parameter larger than 0.5, indicating increased uncertainty on the long term. This implies that only through stochastic analysis may renewable energy resources be reliably manageable and cost efficient. In this context, a pilot application of a hybrid renewable energy system in the Greek island of Astypalaia is discussed, for which we show how the uncertainty (in terms of variability) of the input hydrometeorological processes alters the uncertainty of the output energy values.

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