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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications
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Volume 29
Adv. Geosci., 29, 103–107, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-103-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Adv. Geosci., 29, 103–107, 2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-103-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  05 Apr 2011

05 Apr 2011

Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

A. Ben Daoud1,2, E. Sauquet1, M. Lang1, G. Bontron2, and C. Obled3 A. Ben Daoud et al.
  • 1Cemagref, UR HHLY, Lyon, France
  • 2Compagnie Nationale du Rhône, Direction de l'Energie – Gestion de l'Energie, Lyon, France
  • 3Laboratoire d'Etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble, Grenoble, France

Abstract. This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable.

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