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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications

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Adv. Geosci., 14, 231-237, 2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
10 Apr 2008
El Niño – related precipitation variability in Perú
P. Lagos1, Y. Silva1, E. Nickl2, and K. Mosquera1 1Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Perú
2Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Delaware, USA
Abstract. The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the commonly used El Niño regions and precipitation for 44 stations in Perú is documented for 1950–2002. Linear lag correlation analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions are available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Niño regions is routinely available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the El Niño 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Niño 1+2 region is less reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2 region is discussed.

Citation: Lagos, P., Silva, Y., Nickl, E., and Mosquera, K.: El Niño – related precipitation variability in Perú, Adv. Geosci., 14, 231-237,, 2008.