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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications
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Volume 14 | Copyright
Adv. Geosci., 14, 219-230, 2008
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-14-219-2008
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  10 Apr 2008

10 Apr 2008

Evolution of the 2006–2007 El Niño: the role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics

M. J. McPhaden M. J. McPhaden
  • NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA

Abstract. We describe development of the 2006–2007 El Niño, which started late, ended early and was below average strength. Emphasis is on the interplay between large scale, low frequency (i.e., seasonal-to-interannual time scale) deterministic dynamics and episodic intraseasonal wind forcing in the evolution of the event. Efforts to forecast the El Niño are reviewed, with discussion of factors affecting its predictability. Perspectives on the contemporaneous development of an Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode event in 2006 and possible influences of global warming on the ENSO cycle, which exhibited unusual behavior in the first decade of the 21st century, will also be presented.

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