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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications

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Adv. Geosci., 12, 153-158, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
 
16 Nov 2007
Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation
P. Lionello1 and F. Giorgi2 1University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
2ICTP, Trieste, Italy
Abstract. Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Citation: Lionello, P. and Giorgi, F.: Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation, Adv. Geosci., 12, 153-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007, 2007.
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