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Advances in Geosciences An open-access journal for refereed proceedings and special publications
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Volume 12
Adv. Geosci., 12, 145–151, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
Adv. Geosci., 12, 145–151, 2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.

  02 Nov 2007

02 Nov 2007

Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

M. Weiß, M. Flörke, L. Menzel, and J. Alcamo M. Weiß et al.
  • Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany

Abstract. This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

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