Advances in Geosciences www.adv-geosci.net 1680-7340 1680-7359 7 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) 2006 10.5194/adgeo-7-9-2006 http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/9/2006/ http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/9/2006/adgeo-7-9-2006.html http://www.adv-geosci.net/7/9/2006/adgeo-7-9-2006.pdf 9 14 2006-01-13 Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P) Chr. Anagnostopoulou K. Tolika H. Flocas P. Maheras Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Applied Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, Greece In this paper, an attempt is made to assess and evaluate the skill of the Hadley Center atmospheric General Circulation Model (HadAM3P) in generating successfully the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones (<1000 hPa) in the Mediterranean region. The cyclonic occurrence is studied in three regions of enhanced cyclonic activity: Gulf of Genoa, Southern Italy and Cyprus. It was found that the HadAM3P predicts a future decrease of the frequency of the severe cyclones at the SLP level, but the future cyclones will be more intense (deeper), especially at the 500 hPa level.