A meteo-hydrological forecasting chain: performance of the downscaling and rainfall-runoff steps in a small catchment R. Deidda, M. G. Badas, A. Seoni, and E. Piga Dipartimento di Ingegneria del Territorio, Università di Cagliari, Piazza d'Armi, 09123 Cagliari, Italy
Abstract. Forecasting ground effects of severe meteorological events
with an adequate lead time
is fundamental for civil protection scopes and is therefore an important challenge for
the scientific community.
The paper focuses on the performance of some steps of a meteo-hydrological forecasting chain that can be
applied in small watersheds to assess hydrological risk deriving by an
intense storm predicted at the large meteorological scale.
The proposed procedure integrates large-scale rainfall fields, as those produced by
numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, with statistical rainfall downscaling
and hydrological modelling.
More in details, assuming a large scale rain rate as the input of the process,
the forecasting chain produces an ensemble of hydrographs
that are post-processed in order to give a probabilistic representation
of mean streamflow maxima for different time windows.
The outcome of this procedure can be thus applied to assess the risk that some
critical streamflow thresholds may be exceeded.
The procedure has been tested on more than one thousand recorded events in the Araxisi
catchment in Sardinia, Italy. Results and performances are presented
Citation: Deidda, R., Badas, M. G., Seoni, A., and Piga, E.: A meteo-hydrological forecasting chain: performance of the downscaling and rainfall-runoff steps in a small catchment, Adv. Geosci., 7, 361-369, doi:10.5194/adgeo-7-361-2006, 2006.