Advances in Geosciences www.adv-geosci.net 1680-7340 1680-7359 5 Proceedings of the 8th Workshop for Large Scale Hydrological Modelling - Oppurg 2004 2005 10.5194/adgeo-5-99-2005 http://www.adv-geosci.net/5/99/2005/ http://www.adv-geosci.net/5/99/2005/adgeo-5-99-2005.html http://www.adv-geosci.net/5/99/2005/adgeo-5-99-2005.pdf 99 104 2005-12-16 Model system development and uncertainty for the provisionary management of extreme floods in large river basins K.-E. Lindenschmidt K. Fleischbein T. Petrow S. Vorogushyn S. Theobald B. Merz GFZ GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Section 5.4 – Engineering Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydraulic and Rural Engineering, University of Karlsruhe (TH), Kaiserstraße 12, 76128 Karlsruhe, Germany A research project is introduced in which a modelling system is being developed to quantify risks of extreme flooding in large river basins. In the system, computer models and modules are coupled to simulate the functional chain: hydrology - hydraulics - polder diversion - dyke failure - flooding - damage estimate - risk assessment. In order to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency analyses, data sets are complimented with information from historical chronicles and artwork. Probable maximum precipitation and discharge are calculated to indicate upper bounds of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Uncertainty analysis is investigated for different degrees of model complexity and compared at different basin scales.