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Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties
1Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg (MPI), Germany
2Brandenburgische Technische Universität, Cottbus (BTU), Germany
3Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam (PIK), Germany
4Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IMK-IFU Garmisch-Partenkirchen (IMK), Germany
5Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (DWD), Germany
Abstract. The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.
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Citation: Kotlarski, S., Block, A., Böhm, U., Jacob, D., Keuler, K., Knoche, R., Rechid, D., and Walter, A.: Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties, Adv. Geosci., 5, 119-125, 2005. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
