Advances in Geosciences www.adv-geosci.net 1680-7340 1680-7359 26 11th EGU Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2009) 2010 10.5194/adgeo-26-71-2010 http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/71/2010/ http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/71/2010/adgeo-26-71-2010.html http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/71/2010/adgeo-26-71-2010.pdf 71 76 2010-07-15 Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona M. I. Ortego J. Gibergans-Báguena R. Tolosana-Delgado J. J. Egozcue M. C. Llasat Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada III, Barcelona, Spain Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Barcelona, Spain Universitat de Barcelona, Departament d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona, Spain A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario. Barrera-Escoda, A.: Evolución de los extremos hídricos en Catalunya en los \'ultimos 500 años y su modelización regional. (Evolution of hydric extrems in Catalonia during the last 500 years and its regional modelling), Ph.D. thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain, 2008. Bodini, A. and Cossu, Q. A.: Vulnerability assessment of Central-East Sardinia (Italy) to extreme rainfall events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 61–72, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-61-2010, 2010. Castillo, E., Hadi, A., Balakrishnan, N., and Sarabia, J.: Extreme value and related models with Applications in Engineering and Science, Wiley, London, GB, 384~pp., 2004. Coles, S., Pericchi, L R., and Sisson, S.: A fully probabilistic approach to extreme rainfall modelling, J. Hydrol., 273, 35–50, 2003. Davison, A. and Smith, R.: Models for exceedances over high thresholds (with discussion), J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B, 52, 393–442, 1990. Dupuis, D.: Exceedances over high thresholds: a guide to threshold selection, Extremes, 1, 251–261, 1998. Egozcue, J. J., Pawlowsky-Glahn, V., Ortego, M. I., and Tolosana-Delgado, R.: The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 459–470, doi:10.5194/nhess-6-459-2006, 2006. Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C., and Mikosch, T.: Modelling extremal events for insurance and finance, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 663~pp., 1997. Gelman, A., Carlin, J., Stern, H., and Rubin, D.: Bayesian data analysis, Wiley, New York, NY, USA, 1995. Grandell, J.: Mixed Poisson processes, Chapman & Hall, London, GB, 268~pp., 1997. Katz, R W., Parlange, M B., and Naveau, P.: Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Res., 25, 1287–1304, 2002. Parey, S., Malek, F., Laurent, C., and Dacunha-Castelle, D.: Trends and climate evolution: Statistical approach for very high temperatures in France, Climatic Change, 81, 331–352, 2007. Pawlowsky-Glahn, V., Tolosana-Delgado, R., and Egozcue, J. J.: Scale effect in hazard assessment – application to daily rainfall, Adv. Geosci., 2, 117–121, doi:10.5194/adgeo-2-117-2005, 2005. Pickands, J I.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Ann. Stat., 3, 119–131, 1975. Pujol, N., Neppel, L., and Sabatier, R.: Regional tests for trend detection in maximum precipitation series in the French Mediterranian region / Tests régionaux de détection de tendances dans des séries de maxima pluviométriques sour le pourtour Méditerranéen Français, Hydrol. Sci. J., 52, 956–973, 2007. Raftery, A E.: Extreme value analysis of enviromental time series: An application to trend detection in ground-level ozone. Comment: Are ozone rates decreasing?, Stat. Sci., 4, 378–381, 1989. Robert, C. and Casella, G.: Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer, New York, NY, USA, 507~pp., 2000. Smith, R L.: Extreme value analysis of enviromental time series: An application to trend detection in ground-level ozone., Stat. Sci., 4, 367–377, 1989. Tolosana-Delgado, R., Ortego, M I., Egozcue, J J., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: Climate change in a Point-Over-Threshold model: an example on ocean-wave-storm hazard in NE Spain, Adv. Geosci., submitted, 2010.