Articles | Volume 26
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-71-2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-71-2010
15 Jul 2010
 | 15 Jul 2010

Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona

M. I. Ortego, J. Gibergans-Báguena, R. Tolosana-Delgado, J. J. Egozcue, and M. C. Llasat

Abstract. A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario.