Advances in Geosciences
www.adv-geosci.net
1680-7340
1680-7359
16
Observation, Prediction and Verification of Precipitation (EGU Session 2007)
2008
10.5194/adgeo-16-33-2008
http://www.adv-geosci.net/16/33/2008/
http://www.adv-geosci.net/16/33/2008/adgeo-16-33-2008.html
http://www.adv-geosci.net/16/33/2008/adgeo-16-33-2008.pdf
33
41
2008-04-09
Process-oriented statistical-dynamical evaluation of LM precipitation forecasts
A. Claußnitzer
I. Langer
P. Névir
E. Reimer
U. Cubasch
Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, D-12165 Berlin, Germany
The objective of this study is the scale dependent evaluation of precipitation forecasts of the Lokal-Modell (LM) from the German Weather Service in relation to dynamical and cloud parameters. For this purpose the newly designed Dynamic State Index (<i>DSI</i>) is correlated with clouds and precipitation. The <i>DSI</i> quantitatively describes the deviation and relative distance from a
stationary and adiabatic solution of the primitive
equations.
A case study and statistical analysis of clouds and precipitation demonstrates the availability of the <i>DSI</i> as a dynamical threshold parameter. This confirms the importance of imbalances of the atmospheric flow field, which dynamically induce the generation of rainfall.
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