Advances in Geosciences www.adv-geosci.net 1680-7340 1680-7359 14 2nd EGU Alexander von Humboldt Conference "The role of Geophysics in Natural Disaster Prevention" 2008 10.5194/adgeo-14-243-2008 http://www.adv-geosci.net/14/243/2008/ http://www.adv-geosci.net/14/243/2008/adgeo-14-243-2008.html http://www.adv-geosci.net/14/243/2008/adgeo-14-243-2008.pdf 243 249 2008-04-10 Relationships of surface air temperature anomalies over Europe to persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to heat waves J. Kyselý kysely@ufa.cas.cz R. Huth Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic Heat waves are among natural hazards with the most severe consequences for human society, including pronounced mortality impacts in mid-latitudes. Recent studies have hypothesized that the enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation may affect surface climatic extremes, mainly the frequency and severity of heat waves. In this paper we examine relationships between the persistence of the Hess-Brezowsky circulation types conducive to summer heat waves and air temperature anomalies at stations over most of the European continent. We also evaluate differences between temperature anomalies during late and early stages of warm circulation types in all seasons. Results show that more persistent circulation patterns tend to enhance the severity of heat waves and support more pronounced temperature anomalies. Recent sharply rising trends in positive temperature extremes over Europe may be related to the greater persistence of the circulation types, and if similar changes towards enhanced persistence affect other mid-latitudinal regions, analogous consequences and implications for temperature extremes may be expected. Begert, M., Schlegel, T., and Kirchhofer, W.: Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 65–80, 2005. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm tracks and climate change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, 2006. Beniston, M.: The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02202, doi:10.1029/2003GL018857, 2004. Camuffo, D. and Jones, P.: Improved understanding of past climatic variability from early daily European instrumental sources, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, London, 392 pp., 2002. Cawley, G. C.: Mean daily surface level pressure anomaly charts by Grosswetterlagen Index, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, available at http://theoval.sys.uea.ac.uk/~gcc/projects/accord/experiments/experiment1a/report.html, 2002. Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., von Weissenfluh, H., Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M., and Wanner, H.: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability, Clim. Dynam., 29, 251–275, 2007. Domonkos, P., Kysel\'y, J., Piotrowicz, K., Petrovic, P., and Likso, T.: Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large scale circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 987–1010, 2003. Filleul, L., Cassadou, S., Medina, S., Fabres, P., Lefranc, A., Eilstein, D., Le Tertre, A., Pascal, L., Chardon, B., Blanchard, M., Declercq, C., Jusot, J. F., Prouvost, H., and Ledrans, M.: The relation between temperature, ozone, and mortality in nine French cities during the heat wave of 2003, Env. Health Persp., 114, 1344–1347, 2006. Geng, Q. and Sugi, M.: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols – study with a high-resolution AGCM, J. Climate, 16, 2262–2274, 2003. Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P. C., and Rüge, U.: Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas nach Paul Hess und Helmuth Brezowsky 1881–1998, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach a Main, 1999. Grize, L., Huss, A., Thommen, O., Schindler, C., and Braun-Fabrlander, C.: Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland, Swiss Med. Weekly, 135, 200–205, 2005. Hess, P. and Brezowsky, H.: Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas, Ber. Dt. Wetterdienstes in der US-Zone, Nr 33, 39 pp., 1952. Klein Tank, A. M. G., Wijngaard, J. B., Koennen, G. P., and co-authors: Daily dataset of 20th century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1441–1453, 2002. Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Koennen, G. P.: Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99, J. Climate, 16, 3665–3680, 2003. Knippertz, P., Ulbrich, U., and Speth, P.: Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment, Clim. Res., 15, 109–122, 2000. Kysel\'y, J.: Temporal fluctuations in heat waves at Prague-Klementinum, the Czech Republic, from 1901–1997, and their relationships to atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 33–50, 2002. Kysel\'y, J.: Implications of enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 689–695, 2007. Kysel\'y, J. and Domonkos P.: Recent increase in persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe: Comparison with long-term variations since 1881, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 461–483, 2006. Kysel\'y, J. and Dubrovsk\'y, M.: Simulation of extreme temperature events by a stochastic weather generator: Effects of interdiurnal and interannual variability reproduction, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 251–269, 2005. Leckebusch, G. C., Koffi, B., Ulbrich, U., Pinto, J. G., Spangehl, T., and Zacharias, S.: Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales, Clim. Res., 31, 59–74, 2006. Moberg, A. and Jones, P. D.: Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901–99, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1149–1171, 2005. Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Lister, D., and co-authors: Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D22106, doi:10.1029/2006JD007103, 2006. Poumadere, M., Mays, C., Le Mer, S., and Blong, R.: The 2003 heat wave in France: Dangerous climate here and now, Risk Analysis, 25, 1483–1494, 2006. Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336, 2004. Sheridan, S. C. and Kalkstein, L. S.: Progress in heat watch-warning system technology, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 1931–1941, 2004. Werner, P. C., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Fraedrich, K., and Oesterle, H.: Recent climate change in the North Atlantic/European sector, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 463–471, 2000. Wijngaard, J. B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., and Koennen, G. P.: Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 679–692, 2003.