Evolution of the 2006–2007 El Niño: the role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics M. J. McPhaden NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
Abstract. We describe development of the 2006–2007 El Niño, which started late,
ended early and was below average strength. Emphasis is on the interplay
between large scale, low frequency (i.e., seasonal-to-interannual time
scale) deterministic dynamics and episodic intraseasonal wind forcing in the
evolution of the event. Efforts to forecast the El Niño are reviewed,
with discussion of factors affecting its predictability. Perspectives on the
contemporaneous development of an Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode event in
2006 and possible influences of global warming on the ENSO cycle, which
exhibited unusual behavior in the first decade of the 21st century,
will also be presented.
Citation: McPhaden, M. J.: Evolution of the 2006–2007 El Niño: the role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics, Adv. Geosci., 14, 219-230, doi:10.5194/adgeo-14-219-2008, 2008.