Advances in Geosciences www.adv-geosci.net 1680-7340 1680-7359 12 Mediterranean storms and extreme events in an era of climate change 2007 10.5194/adgeo-12-145-2007 http://www.adv-geosci.net/12/145/2007/ http://www.adv-geosci.net/12/145/2007/adgeo-12-145-2007.html http://www.adv-geosci.net/12/145/2007/adgeo-12-145-2007.pdf 145 151 2007-11-02 Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts M. Weiß weiss@cesr.de M. Flörke L. Menzel J. Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation. Alcamo, J., Flörke, M., and Märker, M.: Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes, Hydrol. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, 2007. Alcamo. J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317–337, 2003. Arnell, N. W.: The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective, Global Environ. Chang., 9, 5–23, 1999. Arora, K. and Singh, V. P.: A comparative evaluation of the estimators of the log Pearson type (LP) 3 distribution, J. Hydrol., 105, 19–37, 1989. Bobee, B.: The log-Pearson type 3 distribution and its applications in hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 14, 365–369, 1975. Bobee, B. and Ashkar, F.: The Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1991. Bobee, B. and Robitaille, R.: The use of the Pearson type 3 distribution and log Pearson type 3 distribution revisited, Water Resour. Res., 13, 427–443, 1977. Chang, T. J. and Stenson, J. R.: Is it realistic to define a 100-year drought for water management?, Water Resour. Bull., 26(5), 823–829, 1990. Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Lehner, B.: A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation, J. Hydrol., 270, 105–134, 2003. Döll, P. and Lehner, B.: Validation of a new global 30-min drainage direction map, J. Hydrol., 258, 214–231, 2002. EEA: Sustainable water use in Europe – Part 3: Extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts, Environmental issue report No 21, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2001. EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, 2007. Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Demuth, S.: A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 535–552, 2006. Gottschalka, L., Tallaksena, L. M., and Perzynab, G.: Derivation of low flow distribution functions using recession curves, J. Hydrol., 194, 239–262, 1997. GRDC: Long Term Mean Monthly Discharges and Annual Characteristics of Selected GRDC Stations, The Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz, Germany, 2004. Guha-Sapir, D., Hargitt, D., and Hoyois, P.: Thirty years of natural disasters 1974–2003: The numbers, Presses Universitaires de Louvain, Louvain-la Neuve, 2004. Hisdal, H. and Tallaksen, L. M. (Eds.): Drought event definition, ARIDE Tech. Report no. 6, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, 2000. IACWD Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data: Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency: Bulletin 17B, U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Water Data Coordination, Reston, VA, 1982. IEA: Australian rainfall and runoff: a guide to flood estimation, Institution of Engineers, Australia, Barton, ACT, 1998. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Watson, R. T. and the Core Writing Team, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp., 2001. IPCC: Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000. Kite, G. W.: Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1977. Lehner, B., Döll, P., Alcamo, J., Henrichs, H., and Kaspar, F.: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis, Climatic Change 75, 273–299, 2006. Madsen, H., Rasmussen, P. F., and Rosbjerg, D.: Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events, Water Resour. Res., 33, 747–757, 1997. McGraw-Hill: Dictionary of Environmental Science, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., USA, 2003. Mitosek, H. T., Strupczewski, W. G., and Singh, V. P.: Three procedures for selection of annual flood peak distribution, J. Hydrol., 323, 57–73, 2006. New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P. D.: Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability: Part II: Development of 1901–96 monthly grids of surface climate, J. Climate, 13, 2217–2238, 2000. Palmer, W: Meteorological drought, Research Paper 45, US Weather bureau, Washington D.C., USA, 1965. Rao, A. R. and Hamed, K.: Flood Frequency Analysis, CRC, West Palm Beach, p 350, 2000. Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp., 1996. Stahl, K. and Demuth, S.: Linking streamflow drought to the occurrence of atmospheric circulation pattern, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 44(3), 467–482, 1999. Stedinger, J. R., Vogel, R. M., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Frequency analysis of extreme events, in: Handbook of Hydrology, edited by: Maidment, D. R., McGraw-Hill, New York, 20 pp., 1993. Tate, E. L. and Freeman, S. N.: Three modelling approaches for seasonal streamflow droughts in southern Africa: The use of censored data, Hydrol. Sci. J., 45, 1, 27–42. 2000 UNICEF: http://www.unicef.org/drought/, updated 19 May 2000, accessed 31 January 2007. Woo, M. K. and Tarhule, A.: Stream flow droughts of Northern Nigerian rivers, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 35(1), 19–34, 1994. Wilhite, D. A.: Drought Volume I – A Global Assessment, Routledge, New York, USA, 2000. WMO – World Meteorological Organization: WMO Technical Note 138, Report of the CagM Working Group on the Assessment of Drought, Geneva, Switzerland, 1975.