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Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany
Abstract. This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.
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Citation: Weiß, M., Flörke, M., Menzel, L., and Alcamo, J.: Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts, Adv. Geosci., 12, 145-151, 2007. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
