Advances in Geosciences
www.adv-geosci.net
1680-7340
1680-7359
10
Observation, Prediction and Verification of Precipitation (EGU Session 2006)
2007
10.5194/adgeo-10-133-2007
http://www.adv-geosci.net/10/133/2007/
http://www.adv-geosci.net/10/133/2007/adgeo-10-133-2007.html
http://www.adv-geosci.net/10/133/2007/adgeo-10-133-2007.pdf
133
138
2007-04-26
Verification of precipitation forecasts by the DWD limited area model LME over Cyprus
K. Savvidou
S. C. Michaelides
A. Orphanou
orphanoua@yahoo.gr
P. Constantinides
J.-P. Schulz
U. Voigt
M. Savvides
Meteorological Service, Nicosia, Cyprus
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany
Department of Lands and Surveys, Nicosia, Cyprus
A comparison is made between the precipitation forecasts by the
non-hydrostatic limited area model LME of the German Weather Service (DWD)
and observations from a network of rain gauges in Cyprus. This is a first
attempt to carry out a preliminary verification and evaluation of the LME
precipitation forecasts over the area of Cyprus.
<br><br>
For the verification, model forecasts and observations were used covering an
eleven month period, from 1/2/2005 till 31/12/2005. The observations were
made by three Automatic Weather Observing Systems (AWOS) located at Larnaka
and Paphos airports and at Athalassa synoptic station, as well as at 6, 6
and 8 rain gauges within a radius of about 30 km around these stations,
respectively. The observations were compared with the model outputs,
separately for each of the three forecast days.
<br><br>
The "probability of detection" (POD) of a precipitation event and the "false
alarm rate" (FAR) were calculated. From the selected cases of the forecast
precipitation events, the average forecast precipitation amounts in the area
around the three stations were compared with the measured ones.
<br><br>
An attempt was also made to evaluate the model's skill in predicting the
spatial distribution of precipitation and, in this respect, the geographical
position of the maximum forecast precipitation amount was contrasted to the
position of the corresponding observed maximum. Maps with monthly
precipitation totals observed by a local network of 150 rain gauges were
compared with the corresponding forecast precipitation maps.
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